San Miguel 2-4 Patronato — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 2 Sep 2024

📅02/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.33
No
60%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
21%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.8pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.9pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-5.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+5.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
39%
+0.7pp
60%
BTTS No
61%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Miguel EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Patronato EU Bookmakers 21%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -16%
1.81/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.45
+36% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
265 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Miguel
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Patronato
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
08.05.2024 Patronato Patronato 0-1 HT 0-0 San Miguel San Miguel ARJPBN
14.04.2024 Patronato Patronato 0-0 HT 0-0 San Miguel San Miguel ARJPBN
POST-MATCH San Miguel vs Patronato
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Patronato beat San Miguel 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was San Miguel at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, San Miguel had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for San Miguel and 0.00 for Patronato.

What was the final score of San Miguel vs Patronato?

San Miguel 2-4 Patronato in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 02/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Miguel vs Patronato?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Miguel win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split San Miguel 48%, draw 32%, Patronato 20%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Miguel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ARJPBN More Argentina - National Primera Liga
2 Sep 2024
00:00 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Nueva Chicago Analysis →
02:45 Quilmes vs Tristan Suarez Analysis →
03:10 Colon vs Deportivo Moron Analysis →
21:00 San Telmo vs Arsenal Sarandi Analysis →
21:10 Defensores Unidos vs Almagro Analysis →
21:30 Talleres Remedios vs All Boys Analysis →