Aston Villa vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa 1-0 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa edged past Bayern Münih 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Aston Villa had 30% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 70%, shots finished 5-17, expected goals 0.40 to 1.55 — on chances, Bayern Münih could feel hard done by.
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Bayern Münih?
Aston Villa 1-0 Bayern Münih in the Champions League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Bayern Münih?
Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 28%, draw 27%, Bayern Münih 45%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.