Shakhtar Donetsk 0-3 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 2 Oct 2024

Shakhtar Donetsk
0-3 HT 0-2
Atalanta
📅02/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
54%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.74
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.26
6+ Goals
15%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
9.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
23.6
1/X
5%
16.1
X/1
10%
11.85
X/2
12%
3.87
X/X
14%
5.35
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.94
2/X
6%
15.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.6 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
17%
+5.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
53%
Away Win
59%
-5.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 62%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.62/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.84
-30% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +70% / -50%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 82%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
10.2 Crosses 13.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Atalanta
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.06 xG 2.75
46% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
378 Passes 460
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.12.2019 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 0-3 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta ŞMP
01.10.2019 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk ŞMP

Shakhtar Donetsk 0-3 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
0-3
AWAY Atalanta
0.29 xG 2.60
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 22
0 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
354 Passes 420
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 43
9 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shakhtar Donetsk vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta cruised past Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Shakhtar Donetsk had 47% of the ball to Atalanta's 53%, shots finished 6-22, expected goals 0.29 to 2.60.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.00 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Shakhtar Donetsk vs Atalanta?

Shakhtar Donetsk 0-3 Atalanta in the Champions League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Shakhtar Donetsk 22%, draw 24%, Atalanta 53%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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