Lille 1-0 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 2 Oct 2024

Lille
1-0 HT 1-0
Real Madrid
📅02/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Lille vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
43%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.03
Over 2.5
42%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
18%
3.15
6+ Goals
8%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 33% vs market 20.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.34
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
11%
8.79
X/2
16%
4.29
X/X
15%
5.21
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.32
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+6.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
42%
Away Win
52%
-9.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
45%
+13.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
55%
-13.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.4pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 56%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.28/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.39/1.43
-64% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -44%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
291 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 482 · 84%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
16.5 Crosses 26.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Lille 1-0 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-0
AWAY Real Madrid
1.19 xG 2.18
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
367 Passes 522
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lille vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille nicked a narrow win over Real Madrid 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Lille had 42% of the ball to Real Madrid's 58%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.19 to 2.18 — the balance of chances actually favoured Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Lille vs Real Madrid?

Lille 1-0 Real Madrid in the Champions League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lille 30%, draw 27%, Real Madrid 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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