Benfica 4-0 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 2 Oct 2024

Benfica
4-0 HT 1-0
Atletico Madrid
📅02/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Benfica vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 28% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.99
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
15%
5.9
X/2
17%
5.38
X/X
14%
4.49
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
13%
3.5
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.7pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 39%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.36/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.54
-1% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
13.3 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Benfica vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
412 Passes 406
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
The Meetings
08.12.2015 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid ŞMP
30.09.2015 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-2 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
21.07.2009 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid HAZ

Benfica 4-0 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
4-0
AWAY Atletico Madrid
4.46 xG 0.24
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 2
540 Passes 461
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 17
9 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica swept aside Atletico Madrid 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Benfica made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Benfica had 53% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 47%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 4.46 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Benfica and 1.67 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Atletico Madrid?

Benfica 4-0 Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Benfica 36%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 37%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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