RB Leipzig 2-3 Juventus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 2 Oct 2024

📅02/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.75
Over
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.98
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
21%
3.91
6+
11%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.98 — our 29% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.37
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
9%
5.05
X/2
15%
6.08
X/X
19%
4.24
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
15%
4.38
2/X
5%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-5.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus EU Bookmakers 34%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
2.26/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.25
+80% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +40%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 82%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
12.2 Crosses 11.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-3
AWAY Juventus
3.37 xG 1.20
45% Ball Possession 55%
24 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
335 Passes 443
86% Pass Accuracy 92%
41 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Juventus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventus nicked a narrow win over RB Leipzig 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Juventus found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 45% of the ball to Juventus's 55%, shots finished 24-16, expected goals 3.37 to 1.20 — on chances, RB Leipzig could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Juventus?

RB Leipzig 2-3 Juventus in the Champions League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Juventus?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 35%, draw 30%, Juventus 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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