Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 2 Nov 2024

📅02/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.23
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
13%
12.5
X/1
16%
5.35
X/2
16%
6.21
X/X
8%
5.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.85
2/2
10%
3.98
2/X
7%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.39/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.35
-18% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
301 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
20.9 Crosses 18.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.14 xG 1.75
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
271 Passes 315
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-0 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 0-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AUK
24.04.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-3 HT 1-3 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
18.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 1-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
24.09.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-1
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.11 xG 1.41
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
407 Passes 273
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 12
33 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz and Rapid Wien couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 58% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 42%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.11 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Rapid Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 40%, draw 28%, Rapid Wien 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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