Bahia 2-1 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Nov 2025

Bahia
2-1 HT 0-1
Bragantino
📅02/11/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2026

Bahia vs Bragantino Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 28% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.16
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.55
X/1
17%
4.15
X/2
7%
10.05
X/X
8%
4.89
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
8%
8.38
2/X
7%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
56%
+4.0pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.0pp
19%
Away Win
19%
+0.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Bragantino — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +1%
1.58/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.55
+3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
381 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 80%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.7 Crosses 17.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Bahia vs Bragantino Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bragantino
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.12 xG 1.02
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
384 Passes 308
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.06.2025 Bragantino 0-3 HT 0-2 Bahia Bahia BR1
02.09.2024 Bragantino 2-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.05.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
20.08.2023 Bahia Bahia 4-0 HT 2-0 Bragantino BR1
16.04.2023 Bragantino 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
19.09.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1

Bahia 2-1 Bragantino — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
2-1
AWAY Bragantino
1.58 xG 0.76
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
464 Passes 164
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
30 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia squeezed past Bragantino 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 69% of the ball to Bragantino's 31%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.58 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bahia and 0.83 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Bragantino?

Bahia 2-1 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Bahia 60%, draw 21%, Bragantino 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ BTTS No
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