Falkirk 1-0 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 3 Jan 2026

Falkirk
1-0 HT 0-0
Aberdeen
📅03/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2025/2026

Falkirk vs Aberdeen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.25
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 32% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.2
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
14%
5.17
X/2
17%
6.57
X/X
12%
4.69
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.64
2/X
8%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Falkirk v Aberdeen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Falkirk EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 34%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.54/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.67
+16% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
296 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 71%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.9 Crosses 19.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Falkirk vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Falkirk
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.26 xG 0.96
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
344 Passes 176
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.08.2025 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-1 HT 0-0 Falkirk Falkirk İKP
25.09.2013 Falkirk Falkirk 0-5 HT 0-2 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKLK
26.10.2010 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-1 HT 0-1 Falkirk Falkirk İKLK
17.04.2010 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-0 HT 1-0 Falkirk Falkirk İKP
20.02.2010 Falkirk Falkirk 3-1 HT 2-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
02.02.2010 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-1 HT 0-1 Falkirk Falkirk İKP

Falkirk 1-0 Aberdeen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Falkirk
1-0
AWAY Aberdeen
1.53 xG 0.57
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
357 Passes 261
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Falkirk vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Falkirk edged past Aberdeen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Falkirk found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Falkirk had 56% of the ball to Aberdeen's 44%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 1.53 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Falkirk and 1.50 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Falkirk vs Aberdeen?

Falkirk 1-0 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Falkirk vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Falkirk win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Falkirk 39%, draw 27%, Aberdeen 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Falkirk), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Falkirk) ✓ Under 2.5
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