Kilmarnock 1-3 Hibernian — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
51%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 28% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.4
1/2
11%
25.5
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
7%
8.09
X/2
17%
4.48
X/X
10%
4.68
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
22%
2.58
2/X
11%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
25%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
51%
Away Win
49%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Hibernian EU Bookmakers 53%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -5%
1.46/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/0.97
-5% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
211 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
23.1 Crosses 21.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Hibernian
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.35
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
214 Passes 295
67% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
10.08.2025 Hibernian Hibernian 2-2 HT 2-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
15.03.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-1 HT 0-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
29.12.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 1-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
01.09.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-1 HT 0-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.01.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-2 HT 1-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
11.11.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 1-0 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
1-3
AWAY Hibernian
0.44 xG 2.66
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 3
265 Passes 404
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 31
28 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs Hibernian
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hibernian beat Kilmarnock 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hibernian as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Kilmarnock had 44% of the ball to Hibernian's 56%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.44 to 2.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hibernian led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.33 for Hibernian.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Hibernian?

Kilmarnock 1-3 Hibernian in the Scotland - Premiership on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs Hibernian?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hibernian win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 22%, draw 27%, Hibernian 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hibernian), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hibernian) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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