Motherwell 2-0 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.75
Over 2.5
53%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.93
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.84 — our 24% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.63
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
15%
4.61
X/2
13%
8.25
X/X
11%
4.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
26.5
2/2
12%
6.53
2/X
5%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.1pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.2pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
53%
-6.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
47%
+6.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.56/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.55
+17% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 69%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.9 Crosses 23.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
2W-3D-1L
AWAY St. Mirren
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.37 xG 1.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
310 Passes 240
71% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.11.2025 Motherwell Motherwell 1-4 HT 0-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKLK
09.08.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
15.03.2025 Motherwell Motherwell 2-2 HT 1-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
07.12.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
28.09.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 2-1 HT 2-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
30.03.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
2-0
AWAY St. Mirren
1.88 xG 0.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 8
418 Passes 297
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
40 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell saw off St. Mirren 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Motherwell as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Motherwell had 55% of the ball to St. Mirren's 45%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.88 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motherwell had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Motherwell and 1.33 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs St. Mirren?

Motherwell 2-0 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 47%, draw 23%, St. Mirren 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motherwell) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motherwell) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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