Hearts 1-0 Livingston — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 3 Jan 2026

Hearts
1-0 HT 1-0
Livingston
📅03/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2025/2026

Hearts vs Livingston Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.28
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
11%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.19
No
48%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.46
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
24.45
X/1
22%
3.66
X/2
4%
22.25
X/X
9%
7.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.85
2/2
4%
20.7
2/X
6%
29.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
74%
-3.3pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.9pp
11%
Away Win
10%
+1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
42%
+10.1pp
48%
BTTS No
58%
-10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v Livingston — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Livingston EU Bookmakers 12%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.75/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.01
-16% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -2%
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
501 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 196 · 66%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
24.4 Crosses 13.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Hearts vs Livingston Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Livingston
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.21 xG 0.92
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
356 Passes 186
75% Pass Accuracy 64%
32 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.08.2025 Livingston Livingston 1-2 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
13.04.2024 Hearts Hearts 4-2 HT 4-2 Livingston Livingston İKP
02.01.2024 Livingston Livingston 1-2 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
01.11.2023 Hearts Hearts 1-0 HT 0-0 Livingston Livingston İKP
29.01.2023 Livingston Livingston 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
12.11.2022 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 0-0 Livingston Livingston İKP

Hearts 1-0 Livingston — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
1-0
AWAY Livingston
2.23 xG 0.54
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
415 Passes 204
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
31 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Livingston
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts edged past Livingston 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hearts had 63% of the ball to Livingston's 37%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.23 to 0.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hearts's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hearts and 0.83 for Livingston.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Livingston?

Hearts 1-0 Livingston in the Scotland - Premiership on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Livingston?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Hearts 71%, draw 18%, Livingston 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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