Modena 0-1 Cremonese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
41%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.53
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.68
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.25
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
10%
5.66
X/2
14%
5.17
X/X
14%
3.82
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.74
2/X
9%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.6pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+4.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Cremonese EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +23%
1.11/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.95
-18% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
21.3 Crosses 20.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Cremonese
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.59 xG 2.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 4
300 Passes 535
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Cremonese Cremonese 4-0 HT 4-0 Modena Modena İTB
20.10.2022 Cremonese Cremonese 4-2 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTK
17.03.2006 Cremonese Cremonese 0-1 HT 0-1 Modena Modena İTB
25.10.2005 Modena Modena 3-0 HT 1-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
0-1
AWAY Cremonese
1.04 xG 0.85
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
295 Passes 388
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Modena vs Cremonese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cremonese nicked a narrow win over Modena 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cremonese as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Modena had 44% of the ball to Cremonese's 56%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.04 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Modena and 2.00 for Cremonese.

What was the final score of Modena vs Cremonese?

Modena 0-1 Cremonese in the Italy - Serie B on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Cremonese?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cremonese win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Modena 30%, draw 29%, Cremonese 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cremonese), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cremonese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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