Grimsby Town 1-3 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.53
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
9.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 28% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.91
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
30%
4.01
X/2
9%
11.15
X/X
6%
5.94
2/1
9%
21.2
2/2
9%
8.93
2/X
5%
17.4
Value flag · X/1 at 4.01 — our 30% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
61%
-1.7pp
18%
Draw
21%
-2.9pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.86/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.58
+26% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
299 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 71%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
21.2 Crosses 15.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 0.94
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
252 Passes 234
67% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.08.2025 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-3 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
12.04.2025 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-2 HT 0-2 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
26.12.2024 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
09.04.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
23.12.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
21.02.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
1-3
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.86 xG 0.50
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
300 Passes 99
71% Pass Accuracy 53%
31 Box Touches 9
29 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town beat Grimsby Town 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Grimsby Town at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 69% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 31%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.86 to 0.50 — the balance of chances actually favoured Grimsby Town.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.50 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Harrogate Town?

Grimsby Town 1-3 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 59%, draw 18%, Harrogate Town 22%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Grimsby Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✓ BTTS Yes
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