Grimsby Town 2-1 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.05
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.46
6+ Goals
8%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 29% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.33
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
18%
4.03
X/2
12%
8.94
X/X
12%
4.94
2/1
9%
24.3
2/2
10%
7.05
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.20/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.33
-31% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
319 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 65%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.4 Crosses 14.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Harrogate Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.03 xG 1.31
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
249 Passes 258
63% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.04.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
23.12.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
21.02.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
26.12.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-2 HT 1-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
27.02.2021 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
20.10.2020 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
2-1
AWAY Harrogate Town
1.58 xG 1.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
200 Passes 326
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town edged past Harrogate Town 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Grimsby Town as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 41% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 59%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.58 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.50 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Harrogate Town?

Grimsby Town 2-1 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grimsby Town win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 46%, draw 25%, Harrogate Town 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grimsby Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Grimsby Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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