Colchester 2-0 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
34%
3.18
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.59
Over 2.5
32%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
15%
4.64
6+ Goals
6%
27.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.31 — our 39% vs market 35.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.81
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
14%
4.13
X/2
10%
7.33
X/X
20%
4.02
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
8%
6.24
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.2pp
34%
Draw
28%
+6.3pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.1pp
68%
Under 2.5
59%
+8.7pp
32%
Over 2.5
41%
-8.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.6pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.71/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.11
+5% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
265 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 65%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.3 Crosses 16.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gillingham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.15 xG 0.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
281 Passes 271
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.01.2024 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
26.08.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 0-3 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
21.01.2023 Colchester Colchester 0-2 HT 0-2 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
26.12.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
11.10.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 1-1 HT 1-1 Colchester Colchester İNTK
07.09.2021 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
2-0
AWAY Gillingham
1.33 xG 0.59
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
290 Passes 293
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester saw off Gillingham 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Colchester as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Colchester had 51% of the ball to Gillingham's 49%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.33 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Colchester and 0.83 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Gillingham?

Colchester 2-0 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colchester win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Colchester 42%, draw 34%, Gillingham 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Colchester), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Colchester) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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