AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.72
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
9%
17.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.9
X/1
13%
3.82
X/2
10%
9.5
X/X
11%
4.69
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
7%
7.99
2/X
9%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.0pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.0pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.1pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 22%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -7%
1.46/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.69
+11% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
283 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 68%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.4 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Swindon Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.35 xG 1.43
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
193 Passes 361
62% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-2 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
09.12.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
22.04.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-5 HT 1-3 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
10.12.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
17.04.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-1 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
10.10.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-1
AWAY Swindon Town
0.82 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
240 Passes 130
64% Pass Accuracy 52%
15 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon and Swindon Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Wimbledon at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 60% of the ball to Swindon Town's 40%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.82 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.50 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon Town?

AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 48%, draw 30%, Swindon Town 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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