Cheltenham Town 2-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.59
Over 2.5
39%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
16%
4.55
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.35 — our 36% vs market 34.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.46
1/2
10%
33.0
1/X
8%
14.8
X/1
11%
5.67
X/2
14%
4.88
X/X
11%
4.01
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.62
2/X
9%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 42%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.28/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.13
+1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 68%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
20.7 Crosses 20.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.53 xG 0.66
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
271 Passes 320
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2022 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
07.08.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-1 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
28.11.2020 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra FAK
18.01.2020 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
28.09.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
30.03.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-3 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
2-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.85 xG 0.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
162 Passes 157
65% Pass Accuracy 60%
14 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town squeezed past Crewe Alexandra 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Cheltenham Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 49% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 51%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.85 to 0.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cheltenham Town and 1.17 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Crewe Alexandra?

Cheltenham Town 2-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 33%, draw 28%, Crewe Alexandra 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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