Naesby 3-3 Holbaek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naesby EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Holbaek EU Bookmakers 37%
+12% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.66/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.74
+8% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +97%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naesby
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Holbaek
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2025 Holbaek Holbaek 4-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
21.09.2024 Naesby Naesby 2-3 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
18.05.2024 Naesby Naesby 3-2 HT 1-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
27.04.2024 Holbaek Holbaek 3-2 HT 2-2 Naesby Naesby DAN3
10.03.2024 Naesby Naesby 0-3 HT 0-0 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
14.10.2023 Holbaek Holbaek 2-3 HT 1-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naesby
3-3
AWAY Holbaek
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Naesby vs Holbaek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naesby and Holbaek couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Naesby at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Naesby had 56% of the ball to Holbaek's 44%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holbaek led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Naesby and 2.83 for Holbaek.

What was the final score of Naesby vs Holbaek?

Naesby 3-3 Holbaek in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naesby vs Holbaek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Naesby 43%, draw 27%, Holbaek 31%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Naesby) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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