BFA 1-0 Minija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
4%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+10.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFA EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Minija EU Bookmakers 17%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +2%
2.94/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.32
+61% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +34%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
367 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFA
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Minija
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2024 BFA BFA 1-1 HT 0-0 Minija Minija LIT1
23.03.2024 Minija Minija 0-1 HT 0-0 BFA BFA LIT1
28.10.2023 BFA BFA 2-0 HT 1-0 Minija Minija LIT1
10.06.2023 Minija Minija 1-1 HT 0-1 BFA BFA LIT1
30.09.2022 BFA BFA 2-3 HT 0-2 Minija Minija LIT1
10.08.2022 Minija Minija 3-1 HT 1-1 BFA BFA LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFA
1-0
AWAY Minija
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFA vs Minija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFA edged past Minija 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had BFA as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, BFA had 62% of the ball to Minija's 38%, shots finished 12-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for BFA and 1.33 for Minija.

What was the final score of BFA vs Minija?

BFA 1-0 Minija in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFA vs Minija?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFA win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split BFA 54%, draw 21%, Minija 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFA), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BFA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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