Kalisz 2-4 Polonia Bytom — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.5
Draw
34%
3.45
Away
41%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.86
Over 2.5
39%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.16
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.44
6+ Goals
7%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
25%
+0.3pp
34%
Draw
25%
+8.9pp
41%
Away Win
50%
-9.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
50%
+10.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
50%
-10.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalisz EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Bytom EU Bookmakers 55%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.32/2.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/0.54
+10% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +119%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalisz
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Polonia Bytom
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom 3-0 HT 1-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
29.05.2024 Kalisz Kalisz 1-0 HT 0-0 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom POL2
19.04.2024 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom 1-1 HT 0-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
08.10.2023 Kalisz Kalisz 0-0 HT 0-0 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalisz
2-4
AWAY Polonia Bytom
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kalisz vs Polonia Bytom
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Bytom beat Kalisz 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Polonia Bytom as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kalisz had 51% of the ball to Polonia Bytom's 49%, shots finished 20-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kalisz and 1.00 for Polonia Bytom.

What was the final score of Kalisz vs Polonia Bytom?

Kalisz 2-4 Polonia Bytom in the Poland - 2nd Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalisz vs Polonia Bytom?

Before kick-off our model rated an Polonia Bytom win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kalisz 25%, draw 34%, Polonia Bytom 41%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonia Bytom) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polonia Bytom) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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