Lugano 1-0 Young Boys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.66
6+ Goals
13%
6.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.81
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
17%
5.28
X/2
13%
7.08
X/X
11%
5.69
2/1
8%
21.35
2/2
15%
4.43
2/X
5%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.5pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-4.3pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Young Boys EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.31/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.66
-12% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
16.7 Crosses 18.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Young Boys
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.65 xG 1.52
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
383 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
22.03.2026 Young Boys Young Boys 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
21.12.2025 Lugano Lugano 3-0 HT 2-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
31.08.2025 Young Boys Young Boys 3-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
24.05.2025 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
23.02.2025 Young Boys Young Boys 1-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.11.2024 Young Boys Young Boys 2-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
1-0
AWAY Young Boys
2.66 xG 1.56
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
345 Passes 294
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 28
26 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Young Boys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano squeezed past Young Boys 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (41% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugano had 54% of the ball to Young Boys's 46%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.66 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Young Boys led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lugano and 1.33 for Young Boys.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Young Boys?

Lugano 1-0 Young Boys in the Switzerland - Super League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Young Boys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lugano 41%, draw 24%, Young Boys 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
3 May 2026
15:00 St. Gallen vs Sion Analysis →
17:30 Grasshoppers vs Servette Analysis →