Young Boys 3-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
24%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.1
Over 2.5
58%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
30%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.04 — our 30% vs market 27.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.67
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
16%
4.9
X/2
7%
7.44
X/X
6%
5.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.35
2/2
11%
5.09
2/X
9%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.35 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
47%
+6.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-3.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.2pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Young Boys EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 31%
+15% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -18%
1.91/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.56
+41% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.8 Crosses 15.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Young Boys
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lugano
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.35 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
283 Passes 358
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.05.2025 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
23.02.2025 Young Boys Young Boys 1-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.11.2024 Young Boys Young Boys 2-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
27.10.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 2-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
11.05.2024 Young Boys Young Boys 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.02.2024 Lugano Lugano 3-3 HT 1-1 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Young Boys
3-1
AWAY Lugano
2.96 xG 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 Passes 358
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Young Boys vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Young Boys beat Lugano 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Young Boys as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Young Boys had 47% of the ball to Lugano's 53%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.96 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Young Boys and 1.33 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Young Boys vs Lugano?

Young Boys 3-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Young Boys vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Young Boys win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Young Boys 53%, draw 23%, Lugano 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Young Boys), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Young Boys) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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