Elversberg 5-1 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.09
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.97
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
15%
5.22
X/2
10%
6.67
X/X
6%
5.37
2/1
7%
22.65
2/2
12%
4.33
2/X
6%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
44%
+5.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.8pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-1.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-9.6pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +20%
1.66/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.37
-8% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
288 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
20.0 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Paderborn
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.19 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
376 Passes 381
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2025 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 0-1 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
26.04.2025 Paderborn Paderborn 1-1 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
30.11.2024 Elversberg Elversberg 1-3 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
27.04.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
25.11.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 4-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
5-1
AWAY Paderborn
2.74 xG 1.24
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
240 Passes 341
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 25
4 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg swept aside Paderborn 5-1. Half-time: 4-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Elversberg as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Elversberg had 42% of the ball to Paderborn's 58%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 2.74 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Elversberg and 1.80 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Paderborn?

Elversberg 5-1 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 49%, draw 21%, Paderborn 30%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elversberg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Elversberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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