Greuther Fürth 1-1 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.81
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
9.19
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 30% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.8pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.41/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.58
+7% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
16.2 Crosses 15.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.22 xG 1.40
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
344 Passes 314
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-2 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
16.03.2025 Nürnberg Nürnberg 3-0 HT 3-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
20.10.2024 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-4 HT 0-3 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
25.02.2024 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-1 HT 1-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
15.09.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 1-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
04.02.2023 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-0 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
1-1
AWAY Nürnberg
2.21 xG 1.61
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 22
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
211 Passes 344
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth and Nürnberg shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 42% of the ball to Nürnberg's 58%, shots finished 13-22, expected goals 2.21 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Greuther Fürth and 1.83 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?

Greuther Fürth 1-1 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greuther Fürth win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 37%, draw 27%, Nürnberg 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Greuther Fürth) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Greuther Fürth) ✓ Under 2.5
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