Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Salzburg v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics
Salzburg and Sturm Graz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.
On the day, Salzburg had 45% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 55%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.47 to 1.49.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Salzburg and 1.83 for Sturm Graz.
What was the final score of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 54%, draw 23%, Sturm Graz 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.