Sturm Graz vs Salzburg Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sturm Graz v Salzburg — Team-Based Signals
Sturm Graz vs Salzburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Sturm Graz 1-1 Salzburg — Actual Match Statistics
Sturm Graz and Salzburg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Sturm Graz had 45% of the ball to Salzburg's 55%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.44 to 1.21.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.33 for Salzburg.
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 1-1 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 09/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Salzburg?
Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 31%, draw 27%, Salzburg 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.