AGF Aarhus 2-1 SonderjyskE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.63
Over 2.5
61%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.63
No
39%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.79
2-3 Goals
40%
2.03
4-5 Goals
27%
2.49
6+ Goals
13%
5.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.58
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
17.55
X/1
21%
4.05
X/2
8%
15.2
X/X
8%
8.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.7
2/2
5%
11.4
2/X
7%
19.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.7 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
69%
-5.9pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.4pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
34%
+4.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
66%
-4.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+3.3pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY SonderjyskE EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
2.36/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/2.36
+8% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
431 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
28.1 Crosses 16.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
3W-2D-1L
AWAY SonderjyskE
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.24 xG 1.28
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
410 Passes 296
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.03.2026 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 1-1 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
09.11.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-3 HT 2-1 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
29.10.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-1 HT 1-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAK
20.07.2025 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 1-1 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
16.02.2025 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 1-4 HT 1-3 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
02.08.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 4-0 HT 2-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
2-1
AWAY SonderjyskE
1.64 xG 0.87
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 5
474 Passes 261
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
40 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs SonderjyskE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus squeezed past SonderjyskE 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 62% of the ball to SonderjyskE's 38%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.64 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.17 for SonderjyskE.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs SonderjyskE?

AGF Aarhus 2-1 SonderjyskE in the Denmark - Süperlig on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs SonderjyskE?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 63%, draw 19%, SonderjyskE 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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