Riga FC 1-0 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.29
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
73%
-5.5pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.1pp
14%
Away Win
10%
+3.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.7pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Riga FC EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
2.80/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.11
+19% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
422 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 73%
43.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
31.1 Crosses 14.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Riga FC
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Liepaja
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.10 xG 1.42
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
366 Passes 240
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2026 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 1-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
03.10.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 3-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
18.09.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 0-4 HT 0-2 Riga FC Riga FC LETK
19.07.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-3 HT 1-2 Riga FC Riga FC LET
19.05.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
03.04.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-5 HT 2-3 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Riga FC
1-0
AWAY Liepaja
1.74 xG 0.70
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
480 Passes 277
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 16
32 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Riga FC vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC squeezed past Liepaja 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Riga FC had 62% of the ball to Liepaja's 38%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.74 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Riga FC and 1.00 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of Riga FC vs Liepaja?

Riga FC 1-0 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Riga FC vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated a Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Riga FC 67%, draw 19%, Liepaja 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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