Liepaja 2-3 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
33%
4.19
Away
49%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.95
No
44%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
12%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
14%
+4.2pp
33%
Draw
20%
+12.9pp
49%
Away Win
66%
-17.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.4pp
44%
BTTS No
53%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 70%
+9% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
0.88/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.63/1.12
-12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -5%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
244 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
11.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.9
12.3 Crosses 24.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Riga FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.66 xG 2.65
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
264 Passes 462
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 37
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
19.05.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
03.04.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-5 HT 2-3 Riga FC Riga FC LET
29.09.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
07.07.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-3 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
14.05.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
04.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 4-0 HT 2-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
2-3
AWAY Riga FC
2.00 xG 1.89
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
177 Passes 385
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC edged past Liepaja 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Liepaja had 35% of the ball to Riga FC's 65%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.00 to 1.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Liepaja and 2.67 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs Riga FC?

Liepaja 2-3 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 18%, draw 33%, Riga FC 49%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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