Liepaja 2-1 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
58%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
Over 2.5
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+6.9pp
19%
Draw
20%
-1.1pp
59%
Away Win
64%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.3pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 69%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.01/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.52/1.24
+0% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -8%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
236 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 83%
11.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.5
11.8 Crosses 24.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Riga FC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.09 xG 2.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
267 Passes 378
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.10.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 3-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
18.09.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 0-4 HT 0-2 Riga FC Riga FC LETK
19.07.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-3 HT 1-2 Riga FC Riga FC LET
19.05.2025 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
03.04.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-5 HT 2-3 Riga FC Riga FC LET
29.09.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
2-1
AWAY Riga FC
2.31 xG 1.02
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
178 Passes 429
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja squeezed past Riga FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Riga FC at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Liepaja had 36% of the ball to Riga FC's 64%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 2.31 to 1.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Liepaja's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Liepaja and 3.00 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs Riga FC?

Liepaja 2-1 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 23%, draw 19%, Riga FC 59%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Riga FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Riga FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
7 Mar 2026
15:00 BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina Analysis →