BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Grobina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.4pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Grobina EU Bookmakers 32%
+22% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.81/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.24
+34% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
15.7 Crosses 20.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Grobina
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.91 xG 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
293 Passes 248
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-2 HT 1-1 Grobina Grobina LET
26.06.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-2 HT 1-2 Grobina Grobina LET
04.05.2025 Grobina Grobina 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.03.2025 Grobina Grobina 3-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
14.09.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 2-0 Grobina Grobina LET
27.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
0-1
AWAY Grobina
0.47 xG 1.19
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
330 Passes 163
79% Pass Accuracy 63%
11 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grobina squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was BFC Daugavpils at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 62% of the ball to Grobina's 38%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.47 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.83 for Grobina.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Grobina in the Latvia - Virsliga on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 42%, draw 26%, Grobina 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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