BFC Daugavpils 3-2 Grobina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 26 Jun 2025

📅26/06/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
-0.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Grobina EU Bookmakers 29%
+23% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.84/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.59
+50% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
17.4 Crosses 21.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Grobina
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.67 xG 1.45
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
268 Passes 281
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2025 Grobina Grobina 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.03.2025 Grobina Grobina 3-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
14.09.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 2-0 Grobina Grobina LET
27.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.05.2024 Grobina Grobina 1-3 HT 0-3 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-2
AWAY Grobina
2.06 xG 1.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
253 Passes 247
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils nicked a narrow win over Grobina 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 50% of the ball to Grobina's 50%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 2.06 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.33 for Grobina.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

BFC Daugavpils 3-2 Grobina in the Latvia - Virsliga on 26/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 49%, draw 25%, Grobina 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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