BFC Daugavpils 3-2 Grobina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 15 Sep 2025

📅15/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.5
No
42%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
50%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
62%
-4.3pp
42%
BTTS No
38%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Grobina EU Bookmakers 29%
+24% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.87/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.61
+61% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.4 Crosses 22.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Grobina
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.83 xG 1.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
270 Passes 252
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.06.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-2 HT 1-2 Grobina Grobina LET
04.05.2025 Grobina Grobina 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.03.2025 Grobina Grobina 3-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
14.09.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 2-0 Grobina Grobina LET
27.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.05.2024 Grobina Grobina 1-3 HT 0-3 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-2
AWAY Grobina
3.06 xG 2.20
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
353 Passes 257
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils edged past Grobina 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 54% of the ball to Grobina's 46%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 3.06 to 2.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.67 for Grobina.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

BFC Daugavpils 3-2 Grobina in the Latvia - Virsliga on 15/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobina?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 52%, draw 25%, Grobina 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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