Portimonense vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portimonense v Chaves — Team-Based Signals
Portimonense vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Chaves
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Portimonense
POR
Portimonense 3-2 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics
Portimonense squeezed past Chaves 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Portimonense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Portimonense had 47% of the ball to Chaves's 53%, shots finished 9-12.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Portimonense and 1.50 for Chaves.
What was the final score of Portimonense vs Chaves?
Portimonense 3-2 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Chaves?
Before kick-off our model rated an Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 34%, draw 28%, Chaves 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.