Dynamo Kiev 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.63
No
40%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+3.1pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dynamo Kiev EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 37%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
2.62/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.05
+122% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
388 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dynamo Kiev
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 HT 1-0 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev UKR
29.10.2025 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 2-1 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKRK
14.05.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 HT 0-1 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev UKRK
27.04.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 HT 2-0 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev UKR
27.10.2024 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev 1-1 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
11.05.2024 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 HT 1-0 Dynamo Kiev Dynamo Kiev UKR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dynamo Kiev
1-2
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dynamo Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk edged past Dynamo Kiev 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Shakhtar Donetsk found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Dynamo Kiev had 40% of the ball to Shakhtar Donetsk's 60%, shots finished 9-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Dynamo Kiev and 1.50 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

What was the final score of Dynamo Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Dynamo Kiev 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukraine - Premier League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dynamo Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dynamo Kiev win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dynamo Kiev 38%, draw 26%, Shakhtar Donetsk 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dynamo Kiev) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dynamo Kiev) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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