LDU Quito 2-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
13%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
3%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
66%
+2.0pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.8pp
13%
Away Win
13%
-0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.3pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.71/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.82
+6% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -5%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 211 · 72%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
22.0 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LDU Quito
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 0.85
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
324 Passes 173
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
26.10.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
04.05.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
03.12.2023 LDU Quito LDU Quito 3-1 HT 2-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
18.06.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-2 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
10.09.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 HT 1-1 LDU Quito LDU Quito EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LDU Quito
2-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
2.86 xG 0.22
67% Ball Possession 33%
26 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
413 Passes 154
89% Pass Accuracy 66%
44 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LDU Quito edged past Mushuc Runa 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had LDU Quito as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, LDU Quito had 67% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 33%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 2.86 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold LDU Quito's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, LDU Quito had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for LDU Quito and 1.00 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa?

LDU Quito 2-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LDU Quito vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split LDU Quito 68%, draw 19%, Mushuc Runa 13%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (LDU Quito), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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