Independiente Del Valle 1-0 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.75
Over 2.5
58%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.09
No
45%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-5.3pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.1pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
53%
-10.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
47%
+10.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
44%
+11.4pp
45%
BTTS No
56%
-11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +21%
1.70/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.55
-3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 71%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
19.7 Crosses 13.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-0D-3L
AWAY El Nacional
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.90 xG 1.36
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
314 Passes 205
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.04.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 1-3 HT 1-3 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
27.11.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKVK
03.11.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
12.05.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
02.12.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
17.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-4 HT 1-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-0
AWAY El Nacional
0.55 xG 0.26
65% Ball Possession 35%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
405 Passes 184
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle edged past El Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 65% of the ball to El Nacional's 35%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.55 to 0.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.50 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs El Nacional?

Independiente Del Valle 1-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 56%, draw 22%, El Nacional 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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