Sampdoria 0-1 Brescia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.44
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.3
X/1
9%
4.09
X/2
11%
8.3
X/X
13%
4.68
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
6%
6.53
2/X
8%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.4pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Brescia EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.46/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.34
-12% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.4 Crosses 19.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sampdoria
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brescia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.66 xG 1.23
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
369 Passes 312
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 0-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
03.12.2023 Brescia Brescia 3-1 HT 3-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
01.08.2020 Brescia Brescia 1-1 HT 0-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTA
12.01.2020 Sampdoria Sampdoria 5-1 HT 2-1 Brescia Brescia İTA
04.12.2014 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-0 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTK
14.04.2012 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-0 HT 1-0 Brescia Brescia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
0-1
AWAY Brescia
0.82 xG 1.22
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 21
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 11
329 Passes 249
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 27
38 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Brescia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brescia edged past Sampdoria 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sampdoria at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sampdoria had 57% of the ball to Brescia's 43%, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 0.82 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sampdoria had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sampdoria and 1.00 for Brescia.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Brescia?

Sampdoria 0-1 Brescia in the Italy - Serie B on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Brescia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 45%, draw 30%, Brescia 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sampdoria), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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