New York City FC 3-1 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 26% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.11
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
7%
5.07
X/2
17%
6.32
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1
5%
24.85
2/2
12%
4.24
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 36%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +36%
1.39/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.53
-17% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
18.0 Crosses 11.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
1W-0D-5L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.01 xG 1.74
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
401 Passes 320
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
03.10.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 3-2 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
06.08.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 4-2 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC CONLK
24.03.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
27.08.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
01.06.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
3-1
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.71 xG 1.48
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
336 Passes 316
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC beat FC Cincinnati 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; New York City FC found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New York City FC had 50% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 50%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.71 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for New York City FC and 2.33 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

New York City FC 3-1 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 37%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York City FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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