HNK Gorica 4-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 3 Nov 2025

📅03/11/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +20%
1.12/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.08
+7% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 78%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
16.6 Crosses 19.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.77 xG 0.92
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
284 Passes 316
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.08.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
24.05.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
28.03.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
21.12.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
05.10.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
06.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
4-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.74 xG 0.86
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 9
179 Passes 432
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica cruised past Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and on the day HNK Gorica made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 33% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 67%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.74 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.00 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

HNK Gorica 4-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 03/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 34%, draw 27%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 39%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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