Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
3.83
6+ Goals
9%
17.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
43%
+6.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.39/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.12
+30% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
20.9 Crosses 16.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
4W-2D-0L
AWAY HNK Gorica
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.03 xG 0.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
336 Passes 271
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
28.03.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
21.12.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
05.10.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
06.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
28.01.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-3
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.21 xG 0.68
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 12
244 Passes 301
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica got the better of Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiva Zagreb at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 49% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 51%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 1.21 to 0.68 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lokomotiva Zagreb.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 0.67 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 50%, draw 25%, HNK Gorica 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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