Stevenage 2-0 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.22
6+ Goals
8%
20.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 32% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.53
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.3
X/1
14%
4.02
X/2
9%
8.02
X/X
15%
4.55
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
14%
6.59
2/X
9%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
51%
-9.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 27%
-15% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.13/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.28
-45% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
272 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 66%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
25.1 Crosses 15.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stevenage
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 0.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
205 Passes 178
57% Pass Accuracy 55%
17 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.12.2023 Stevenage Stevenage 3-0 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
05.08.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN1
01.04.2023 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
22.10.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 2-3 HT 1-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
15.03.2022 Stevenage Stevenage 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
19.10.2021 Northampton Town Northampton Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Stevenage Stevenage İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
2-0
AWAY Northampton Town
1.56 xG 0.04
77% Ball Possession 23%
19 Total Shots 1
5 Shots on Target 0
14 Corners 2
453 Passes 77
85% Pass Accuracy 47%
41 Box Touches 2
39 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stevenage beat Northampton Town 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Stevenage as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Stevenage had 77% of the ball to Northampton Town's 23%, shots finished 19-1, expected goals 1.56 to 0.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Northampton Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stevenage and 1.50 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Northampton Town?

Stevenage 2-0 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stevenage win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 41%, draw 30%, Northampton Town 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stevenage), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stevenage) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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