Wrexham 1-0 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.95
Over 2.5
39%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.63
No
55%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
17%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 33% vs market 22.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.61
1/2
10%
29.0
1/X
10%
12.7
X/1
12%
5.6
X/2
8%
5.86
X/X
15%
4.71
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
11%
3.85
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.4pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.4pp
30%
Away Win
35%
-4.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
48%
+13.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
52%
-13.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.9pp
55%
BTTS No
43%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wrexham EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 38%
+15% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
1.00/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.37
+26% / +137% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 74%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
22.3 Crosses 17.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wrexham
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Barnsley
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
05.04.2005 Barnsley Barnsley 2-2 HT 1-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN1
30.08.2004 Wrexham Wrexham 2-1 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
14.02.2004 Wrexham Wrexham 1-0 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
28.10.2003 Barnsley Barnsley 2-1 HT 1-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wrexham
1-0
AWAY Barnsley
0.49 xG 0.85
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
249 Passes 298
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
12 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wrexham vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wrexham squeezed past Barnsley 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Wrexham found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Wrexham had 47% of the ball to Barnsley's 53%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.49 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Wrexham had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Wrexham and 1.25 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Wrexham vs Barnsley?

Wrexham 1-0 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wrexham vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Wrexham 39%, draw 32%, Barnsley 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wrexham), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Wrexham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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