AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 3 Dec 2024

AFC Wimbledon
2-2 HT 2-1
Newport County
📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.34
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.64
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
21.4
X/1
19%
3.43
X/2
5%
16.8
X/X
6%
6.7
2/1
9%
23.85
2/2
10%
13.95
2/X
9%
22.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.0pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.6pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+7.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 15%
-31% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.87/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.59
-5% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
333 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 64%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
23.6 Crosses 12.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Newport County
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.72 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
181 Passes 201
57% Pass Accuracy 58%
19 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.03.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-2 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
02.09.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 1-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
14.03.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
26.12.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
08.11.2016 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İNTK
07.05.2016 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
2-2
AWAY Newport County
1.28 xG 1.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 0
193 Passes 409
65% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon and Newport County shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AFC Wimbledon at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 38% of the ball to Newport County's 62%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.28 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.33 for Newport County.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?

AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 61%, draw 20%, Newport County 19%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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