Walsall 3-2 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
34%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.97
Over 2.5
58%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.29
6+ Goals
14%
11.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.29 — our 26% vs market 25.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.52
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
8%
4.52
X/2
14%
8.29
X/X
11%
4.94
2/1
7%
23.85
2/2
12%
5.96
2/X
7%
13.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
34%
Away Win
25%
+9.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
47%
-4.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
53%
+4.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.5pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Walsall EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.77/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.56
+6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
287 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
22.3 Crosses 20.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Walsall
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Notts County
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 1.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
190 Passes 488
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Walsall Walsall 1-3 HT 0-2 Notts County Notts County İN2
09.12.2023 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-0 Walsall Walsall İN2
20.07.2019 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 0-1 Walsall Walsall HAZ
03.04.2015 Walsall Walsall 0-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN1
01.11.2014 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-1 Walsall Walsall İN1
25.01.2014 Notts County Notts County 1-5 HT 0-3 Walsall Walsall İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Walsall
3-2
AWAY Notts County
1.86 xG 1.50
24% Ball Possession 76%
22 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
131 Passes 555
68% Pass Accuracy 87%
34 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Walsall vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Walsall squeezed past Notts County 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Walsall as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Walsall had 24% of the ball to Notts County's 76%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 1.86 to 1.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Walsall had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Walsall and 1.33 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Walsall vs Notts County?

Walsall 3-2 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Walsall vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Walsall win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Walsall 42%, draw 24%, Notts County 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Walsall), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Walsall) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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