AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2024

AFC Wimbledon
0-2 HT 0-1
Newport County
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.05
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
18%
3.71
X/2
9%
10.7
X/X
13%
5.06
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
7%
8.79
2/X
6%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 21%
-20% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.72/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.48
-1% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
324 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 69%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
24.5 Crosses 13.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Newport County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.72 xG 1.36
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
148 Passes 226
53% Pass Accuracy 60%
15 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 1-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
14.03.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
26.12.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
08.11.2016 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İNTK
07.05.2016 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.12.2015 Newport County Newport County 2-2 HT 2-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2

AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
0-2
AWAY Newport County
0.73 xG 0.78
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
282 Passes 128
68% Pass Accuracy 53%
31 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County got the better of AFC Wimbledon 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Wimbledon at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 64% of the ball to Newport County's 36%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 0.73 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.33 for Newport County.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?

AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 49%, draw 27%, Newport County 24%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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