Connahs Quay 1-1 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.18
Over 2.5
43%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
4.25
2-3 Goals
35%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.25 — our 34% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-8.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+8.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
42%
+14.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
58%
-14.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.9pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +2%
0.83/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.53
-49% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
17.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
15.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
02.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 6-1 HT 5-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
14.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-1 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALWK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
1-1
AWAY Caernarfon Town
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay and Caernarfon Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 24% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 62% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 38%, shots finished 12-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Connahs Quay and 1.67 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Connahs Quay 1-1 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 37%, draw 24%, Caernarfon Town 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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