Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.48
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
50%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
4.57
6+ Goals
6%
25.0
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.75 — our 50% vs market 49.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
21%
Away Win
21%
+0.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.2pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Haverfordwest County EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.73/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.60
+6% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Haverfordwest County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2024 Penybont Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GALLK
23.08.2024 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
21.04.2024 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
08.03.2024 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 0-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
17.10.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 3-2 HT 3-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
18.08.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
1-0
AWAY Haverfordwest County
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Haverfordwest County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont squeezed past Haverfordwest County 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Penybont had 55% of the ball to Haverfordwest County's 45%, shots finished 11-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penybont and 0.50 for Haverfordwest County.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Haverfordwest County?

Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County in the Wales - Premier League on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Haverfordwest County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Penybont 48%, draw 30%, Haverfordwest County 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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