Gremio 1-2 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Dec 2025

📅03/12/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
4.58
6+ Goals
7%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.34
1/2
4%
33.0
1/X
4%
13.85
X/1
17%
5.84
X/2
11%
5.39
X/X
16%
3.93
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
18%
3.83
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.9pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -31%
1.22/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.27
-7% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -23%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
17.4 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fluminense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.66
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
284 Passes 451
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.08.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
02.11.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
21.08.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio LKU
14.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense LKU
30.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
07.12.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-3 HT 1-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-2
AWAY Fluminense
0.73 xG 1.30
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 0
457 Passes 360
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Gremio 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Fluminense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 55% of the ball to Fluminense's 45%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 0.73 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gremio and 1.33 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Fluminense?

Gremio 1-2 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gremio 38%, draw 28%, Fluminense 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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